01.04.2014, 15:29
01.04.2014, 15:29
01.04.2014, 20:44
31 March - 26 April 2014
Solar activity is expected to be low with moderate events likely through the forecast period.
There is a slight chance the greater than 10 MeV proton flux will exceed 10 pfu during the first
week of the forecast period as Region 2017 rotates around the west limb.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal levels
through the forecast period.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 1-3 April, with minor
storm periods possible on 2 April in response to the arrival of the several CMEs described above.
The remainder of the forecast period should see mostly quiet to unsettled conditions in the
absence of any new transient features.
02.04.2014, 14:46
02.04.2014, 18:53
Sirius A hat geschrieben: ... Wie überlebt man als durchschnittlicher 08/15-Bürger die Apokalypse? Genau, die Überlebenschance liegt wohl bei weniger als 0,1 % und das ist noch sehr großzügig gerechnet...
02.04.2014, 20:23
03.04.2014, 09:59
Northern sunspot AR2027 erupted on April 2nd at 14:05 UT, producing a significant M6-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet blast:
"The familiar correlation between the speed and angular width of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is also found in solar cycle 24, but the regression line has a larger slope: for a given CME speed, cycle 24 CMEs are significantly wider than those in cycle 23. The slope change indicates a significant change in the physical state of the heliosphere, due to the weak solar activity. The total pressure in the heliosphere (magnetic + plasma) is reduced by ~40%, which leads to the anomalous expansion of CMEs explaining the increased slope. The excess CME expansion contributes to the diminished effectiveness of CMEs in producing magnetic storms during cycle 24, both because the magnetic content of the CMEs is diluted and also because of the weaker ambient fields. The reduced magnetic field in the heliosphere may contribute to the lack of solar energetic particles accelerated to very high energies during this cycle."
25.04.2014, 09:18
29.04.2014, 16:57
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